Friday, November 12, 2010

Democrats Stand to Lose if GOP changes course on Gay Marriage

"Republican Party Elephant" logoImage via Wikipedia
In August,  gay advocate David Badash of the New Civil Rights Movement wrote an Op-Ed piece for Change.Org. in which he pointed out the fear which drives GOP members like Ken Blackwell.
Referring to Blackwell's piece entitled, Disaster Looms if GOP Changes Course on Gay Marriage,  Badash retorted with some words about recently outed former RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman:

Despite the mixed feelings of the LGBT community at large, Mehlman's coming out does change the game. He brings credibility, fund-raising resources, and something the current de facto leaders of today's Republican Party fear most: a modern-day, under-fifty, politically well-regarded bridge from the GOP of the Bush dynasty to today's out-of-control, Tea Party infested buffoonery that is the Republican Party.
Mehlman has promised to advocate, and fund-raise, for marriage equality, and this scares Blackwell.

Badash then sums up with these closing words:  

The disaster of which Blackwell speaks is not for the GOP. It is disaster for Blackwell, who will be seen as out-of-touch, old hat, a bigot, and a homophobe when the GOP finally accepts marriage equality, and when marriage equality becomes the law of the land.
In fact, should the GOP "change course on gay marriage," the winner would actually be the GOP, and the effective loser would be the Democratic Party, who would lose votes to the GOP. The other loser?
Ken Blackwell.



Which brings me to this question:  Might some of the bleak predictions of an anti-gay rights backlash under the new GOP House post-midterms  -  my own included  -  be driven by this same fear, coming from the liberal perspective?  For what could prove more disastrous at this juncture than that the GOP become socially moderate?  With such a change, the Democrats would lose a huge advantage formerly held with the electorate...




Or are the dire predictions of the GOP having used the gays,  only to throw them over in favor of extremist Tea Partiers and the Christian right still valid?  Time will tell...  in the meantime,  it is something to ponder,  and watch closely...
Neil Howe and William Strauss,  in their epic work,  The Fourth Turning,  pointed out that,  after the Civil War,  certain socially progressive movements went underground,  and has to wait decades to emerge,  and begin again,  from scratch.  Could this be gay marriage's fate? Or is Badash correct,  and will the GOP choose progress over a regress back into the bigotry of the Christian right?
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